October was a good month for the Gunners. It saw Arsenal move from 6 points out of first (with a game in hand) to only 5 points (with a game in hand). More importantly, it saw Liverpool’s title chances all bit end, and appeared to make the title chase a three way race between Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United.
The run in to Christmas offers the potential for Arsenal to not only close the gap on Chelsea, but to go top.
Current Standings
Chelsea – 30 points
Arsenal – 25 points (+ game in hand)
Man United – 25 points
Lets look at the schedule for the top three teams between now and the end of the year.
Arsenal’s Schedule
21st November Sunderland v Arsenal
29th November Arsenal v Chelsea
05th December Arsenal v Stoke City
13th December Liverpool v Arsenal
16th December Burnley v Arsenal
19th December Arsenal v Hull City
27th December Arsenal v Aston Villa
30th December Portsmouth v Arsenal
The Gunners have to be favored in 6 of the 8 games, with Chelsea (H) and Liverpool (A) as the two toss-ups. From those two games I am expecting Arsenal to pick up four points. So that gives Arsenal 20 points from a possible 24.
Chelsea’s Schedule
21st November Chelsea v Wolves
29th November Arsenal v Chelsea
05th December Man City v Chelsea
12th December Chelsea v Everton
16th December Chelsea v Portsmouth
20th December West Ham v Chelsea
26th December Birmingham v Chelsea
28th December Chelsea v Fulham
Chelsea will be favored in 6 of the eight games, with Arsenal (A) and Man City (A) as the two toughest games on the schedule. Away from home has been Chelsea’s weakness this season, so I would not be surprised if they drew at Arsenal and Man City. That gives them 20 points from a possible 24.
Manchester United’s Schedule
21st November 2009 Man Utd v Everton
28th November 2009 Portsmouth v Man Utd
05th December 2009 West Ham v Man Utd
12th December 2009 Man Utd v Aston Villa
15th December 2009 Man Utd v Wolves
19th December 2009 Fulham v Man Utd
27th December 2009 Hull City v Man Utd
30th December 2009 Man Utd v Wigan Athletic
Man United will be favored in all 8 of their games and I would expect them to pick up the maximum 24 points here.
Projected Standings as of 12/31
Chelsea – 50 points
Man United – 49 points
Arsenal – 45 points (+ game in hand)
So I expect Arsenal to start the New Year right where they are now. Five points behind Chelsea with a game in hand. With some many of Chelsea’s big stars heading to the African Cup in January, Arsenal will be well positioned to take advantage of any Chelsea slip-up.
What do you think? Agree/Disagree on my assessment of the next eight league games?
For those who wondered, I only included the top three in my analysis as I think the eventual Champions will come from this select group. As to who will grab that final Champions League spot? That will be a season long battle between Villa, Man City, Spurs and Liverpool.
{ 23 comments… read them below or add one }
fulham westham man city is tough! chelsea maybe will slip at birmingham too.
well,i dont think Man U with the way they are playing will pick maximum points.Remember Chelsea lost to Aston Villa,so its very much possible that they can drop ponts there and against Fulham as well it will be very tricky
i dont agree wit Man-u matches dey wil struggle against Everton n Aston-villa n whereas Chelsea will also struggle against Arsenal,Man-city,Everton whereas d ONLY threat Arsenal has is Chelsea i See Liverpool’s match been an Easy one
ur being too optimistic, i think there are some tricky ones…sunderland and aston villa they are not pushover by any mean..plus pportsmoth are good at home so anything can happen there, but just let us hope ur right
…..c’mon arsenal …. n god plz no injury in interlull break….
My fellow gooners football is not mathematics. U gave Man UTD 8/8, Arsenal 6/8 and chelsea 6/8. Untill then.
Arsenal will beat Chelsea at the Grove and still be second on new year.
Manure will drop some points at either at Fullham or home to Aston villa.
i feel like more points will be dropped.i feel chelsea will drop points to arsenal and mancity, and quite possibly fulham and west ham. i feel man united will get 3 draws, to teams such as fulham, aston villa, west ham or everton. i feel arsenal will only drop 4 points, draws against chelsea and aston villa. i dont feel like liverpool is any threat even if the game is at anfield.
chelsea to drop 6 points 48points
manure to drop 6 points 43 points
arsenal to drop 4 points 47 points (with a game in hand)
i picture aston villa to be coming 4th by this stage, but some way behind manure still. i also picture tottenham to have dropped off, with liverpool and mancity making up the european spots…
this is just my guess – i’ll probably be waaaay off.
cheers
You could well be right with these numbers. Basically you see Arsenal 4 points out the end of the year and I see five points. Minor difference
sorry i meant arsenal 44 points with a game in hand. cheers
Honestly u’v done a gr8t analys,bt i still c chelsea & man u as a big treat 2 our title ambition.Those 2 teams are very strong & av got players in depth.Only luck & injury free can land us 2 our dream land.Some players are coming 4rom injury y some are going back,dis is nt wat we want bt i pray we arsener fans across d world av d grace 2 smile by d end of d season.I’m a die hard arsenal fan.Good luck 2 al gooner fan
If chelsea are expected to draw away to both us and city then they’ll have 20/24 and not 22!
Chels 50
Manure 49
Arsenal 47 (game in hand)
and given the fact that we’r whipping teams i can c our goal difference being superior to both, so if we win our game in hand we can go top!
i dont know why but i really have a bad feeling about the chelsea and liverpool games! im obviously more confident against liverpool, cause this year the players seem to put more emphasis on games and have better concetration! but i seriously think chelsea can rough us up a bit physically and overpower us….i seriously hope im wrong thou!! and even thou i blve we wont get anything out of that game i think we can be more consistant against the smaller teams and win the league that way! this year we seem to not underestimate the small teams which is posative…but an injury to gallas or vermaelin really scares me…and i think they are the most important two to keep fit for the whole season cause senderos and silvestre have too many mistakes in them, and that could prove costly!!
if you say chelsea will will 6 of their 8 and draw the other 2 then that would lead them to have 20 points from 24 not 22
Updated the numbers Enes. Math obviously is not my strong suite
i think westham has a good chance of fighting “with” their teeth out while having a go at chelsea despite their losing streak. chavs and mancs are likely to lose points there.
you’re right, aston villa and fulham will litmus tests for manc.
right now, arsenal needs to keep taking all the chances that come our way and defensively tighten our nuts as a team (defend in numbers and hit on the counter).
Man United playing the way they are playing now are not going to pick up 8 wins in a row.
In fact there is ZERO chance each of those teams are going to pick up 22/ 24 points. There will be some draws in there.
If they do pick up 22/24 points they will all be playing at a better pace than they are now. Having all lost at least 2 games each.
Good point Adam. What I expect is that all three of the teams will drop some points in the next eight games that are unexpected. The net result will be the same.
If we beat Chelsea at home , then We will have the belief to beat any team in the premier league. This will definately take us comfortably in the 2 nd place behind Chelsea at the end of the Year.
I think Man Utd will definately drop points and if all our players and I mean all our players ( Walcott , Denilson , Bendtner , Vela , Rosicky , Clichy ) are fit then we have a real shot at the title. I think the focus and attention should really be on the premier league title then any place else cos Champion’s league gonna be extremely difficult and F.A Cup and Carling Cup , we give chance to youngsters and those in line for the following year, that’s always the policy of Arsene Wenger.
1 Title – Barclays Premier League
The key part in your comment Rashmin is keeping the players fit. If Van Persie gets injured I am not sure how Arsenal replace him
Arsenal will beat Chealse, but my fear now is injury, if our boys can keep fit and not to sustain any injuries, the CUP is ours no doubt about that, also, i want to urge Wenger to please, look for one more CD, incase of any incasity, also one outstanding striker, strong and calculative one, this is our time, Wenger please don’t blow this for us. Good luck guys, gooooooners till enternity.
i dont think its wise to look at it your way, because that doesnt take into account factors like injuries ect…
its much better to take it game by game and see where we end up. as has aleady been shown in the league this year, anything can happen, but with our current form, we should be able to pick up near to maximum points and hopefully chelsea will get some long term injuries to screw them up!
Fellow Gunners
Some interesting points made there. I think Arsenal have a slightly more difficult schedule than our rivals. However, if they continue to play with the same philosophy and belief shown so far this year, then they will be fine. There is not a single thing that a full strength Man Utd and Chelsea can do to stop Arsenal, provided Arsenal maintain the attacking game plan, and their belief. The stats are already beginning to indicate this. Even if they lose to Chelsea. I am convinced that sooner or later Chelsea will have difficulty scoring. Why? Because neither they nor Manchester United have the scoring power that Arsenal has. It is already the reason why Arsenal has since made up ground on Man Utd, Arsenal lost at OT but the philosophy and belief they have continued to demonstrate since then has completely nullified that result. Like most Gunners I am confident they can beat Chelsea, but if not I still think Arsenal can overhaul them long term.
Some of you are concerned if key players get hurt! Genuine concern for sure! However, I think Wenger is right, Arsenal have the talent throughout the squad to cope. Even if RVP or Fab goes down. Look who would be coming in. Eduardo, Nasri etc.
Interested in the comments of Arsenal, Chelsea and Man Utd supporters.
Gunner
I believe our main threat is injuries in particular if one of either Gallas or Vermalean get injured. The replacements for these two players, Senderos and Silvestre, are weak. I would like to see one of them sold in Jan and replaced with a better quality CB. I don’t know why but the last 2/3 years it seems that we have suffered more than our fair share of long term injuries. If we are lucky this season with long term injuries then I think we are in for a real shout!
Bravo Gunners we love U so much, we hope U always consistent n more thirsty goal.
Greetings 4 all young Gunners we always support you full with whatever we can.
Go Gunners U should get more winner to show them you are best of the best team, best manager n best players.
Sincerely yours,
Girindra Imam Syafii.
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