Is their any doubt that Arsenal will be taken over in 2010 by either Stan Kroenke or Alisher Usmanov?
News in the British press this morning indicate that both men have recently increased the size of their stake in Arsenal. Last week Kroenke bought another 25 shares in the club for £212,500, putting him just 17 shares away from having to make a formal offer for the team.
That Kroenke has bought more shares in itself is not big news. What is interesting is that Usmanov last month bought 668 shares at £8,500, the same price that Kroenke paid.
At £8,500 a share, Arsenal is valued at around £529m.
Under British law Under City rules, anyone crossing the 30% threshold would be forced to make a formal offer for the remainder of the shares at the highest price paid for stock during the past 12 months.
The highest point paid for stock during the past 12 months is an important stipulation as Kroenke paid £10,500 per share he paid to the Carr family for 4,839 shares (7.7 per cent of Arsenal) in May.
Most of the purchases since then have been for £8,500 a share, so I expect a formal offer from Kroenke to come this summer.
When that offer comes, shareholders would not be forced to sell to Kroenke. If he is unable to secure 50%, then he could not make another takeover offer for 12 months unless invited to do so by Arsenal. That would appear to mean that Lady Nina Bracewell-Smith, who left the arsenal board last year, could well hold the balance of power with her family’s 15.9% stake in the club.
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10,500 * 70 = £735m. if kronke can hold on for another season arsenal will be in the black and able to afford the cost of any loan kronke takes out for the club.