At the start of the season Arsene Wenger predicted that it would take 83 points to win the Premier League this year and he is still sticking by that number.
“I said a few months ago that 78 to 83 points would win the title and I stick by that. If you multiply the current numbers [points totals] by two then you will not be far from that. Chelsea have played 20 games and have 45 points, we have played 19 games and have 41 points. If you multiply that by two it’s 82 points. The champions will be around there with 82, 83, 84 [points]. Don’t forget we all have to play each other again. Nobody will run away with it and get 19 wins. At the moment there are six or seven teams who could play in the top four and they will all play each other. That means everybody will drop points.”
The last six title winning teams have averaged 90.3 points, with Chelsea’s 2004/05 team setting the record with 95 points.
If Wenger’s calculations are correct, then Arsenal need 42 points from their remaining 19 games. If my math is correct, that mean the Gunners can still lose another 5 games this season and still win the title. That seems a little unlikely, and I think it will take 87-88 points to become champions, which means the Gunners can afford to lose 1 or 2 more games (assuming a couple of draws along the way).
How many points do you think it will take to win the title this year?
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Part of me still thinks Chelsea can go on a long run and pile up some points, but I think Wenger is right on this. I might punch it up a bit by saying in the 84,85 range.
So much comes down to that stretch at the end of Jan.-beginning of Feb.
If we come out of @Villa, United, @Chelsea, and Liverpool in roughly the same position we are in now… it will be in our hands with the rest of our schedule.
If we can avoid dropping too many points in the last few months, we have a great shot.
I thing 86 points will win the league so we have to be more consistent
I have ran a full simulation using score forecasting software and created an excel spreadsheet. The result is that we win, with 96 points. Chelsea are second with 89 points, Man U 3rd with 88 and then Liverpool 4th with 73 points (closely followed by Spurs on 72, Villa on 71 and Man C also on 71).
I did adjust the team strengths a little to result us in winning a couple of games against Man U and Chelsea I suspect we will actually draw so it really is going to end up being very very close potentially. As others have said, no one wil run away with it and everyone is going to continue to drop points.
As I have said before, we have not had a better chance to Win the EPL for many years and we need to reinforce now with Upson and Cole from West Ham with Wiltshire and maybe one or two others going to the Hammers on loan to help rescue their season (great experience for the youngersters). Also, Zola and Wenger get on pretty well.
If we strengthen now with these two additions I can really see us winning the league!
96 points is a bit of a stretch Gary, considering that the maximum number of points that Arsenal can pick up from their remaining 19 games is 57. Add that to the 41 points they have and you have a maximum total of 98.
At 83 points will be among the first three who will qualify directly to champion league.
If Arsenal can maintain its performance, I believe EPL champion is realistic target for them.
who cares abt points as long as we win the league!
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